Sand Spring Advisors LLC
The Unexpected Path
February 2, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
Consensus opinion always seems to be that economic weakness in the first half of the year will somehow evolve into an economic rebound in the second half. This is certainly the case amongst most economists in 2003, and no one seems to care that similar views in 2002 and 2001 and 2000 all failed to pan out.
Markets being markets, perhaps the reverse will be true: short-term surprise economic and market strength could emerge, only to then be shattered mid-year. Psychologically, such a path would hurt the most people -- sucking people into believing that the worst of the bear market is over, only to then have people face another wealth purge.
Cyclically we have reason to believe that the months of June and July will be far more difficult than February through late May. At the same time, in the short-term at least, the Japanese and Asian markets actually appear constructively poised to our eye. Subscribers are invited to click here to find out the details why.
Non-subscribers are invited to access our February 2nd article, "Gentle Early Spring, but Rough Summer: Focus on Asia for Now," together with other past articles, by signing up for a quarterly Sandspring.com subscription below.
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