Sand Spring Advisors LLC
4-1 Against Saddam by Summer
February 9, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
What are the odds that Saddam Hussein will no longer be the leader of Iraq by the end of June? In this modern world, there is of course a price for everything. At Tradesports.com, a web-based betting exchange run out of Dublin, this betting proposition comes back at odds of approximately 1-4. In other words, the vast majority expect Saddam to be long gone by that time. Risk 80 cents to receive a 20 cent profit to agree with Saddam's imminent overthrow, or risk losing 20 cents to make 80 cents if the proposition of his demise by June proves false (the betting index shown below destined to settle at either 100 [overthrown] or 0 [still in power]).
Which side of this market would we take? Like most other Americans, we at Sandspring.com would not mind seeing a defusing of the Iraqi situation either through political negotiations or a clean, swift, and successful surgical war. But few things in this world are as easy to achieve as we want them to be, and everything inevitably takes longer to transpire than anticipated. With Saddam having somehow successfully remained in power for over 20 years -- despite the world's clear distaste for him -- we feel that when offered 4-1 odds that he gets overthrown within 5 months, we'd have to bet that Saddam will still be in power come June 30th, and look to trade out of such a wager as winter slowly leads to spring, and spring to early summer.
Non-subscribers are invited to access our February 2nd article, "Gentle Early Spring, but Rough Summer: Focus on Asia for Now," together with other past articles, by signing up for a quarterly Sandspring.com subscription below.
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