Sand Spring Advisors LLC
In Terms of the NYA
February 22, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
Sometimes when people are overly focused on the major DJIA and S&P 500 indices within a choppy range, the true underlying rhythm of the market is best seen in a less popular index.
Pictured above is the NYA Index that gives an equal weighting to all NYSE-listed stocks (at least for now, with some proposed changes to this index currently in the works). In the NYA's rhythm, we see a definite missing low toward 393, but in the short-term the price action looks reasonably perky.
If we were to hazard to prognosticate in the current geo-political environment all the way out to December, we would look for a high in this Index on or around March 17th - 18th (a PEI Date) toward 461; followed by a sharp drop off of what will end up having been a July, 2002 - March 2003 "shelf formation" that will succumb to a very nasty early June low toward 393; followed by a late July retest of these lows and likely marginal new lows. Thereafter, the bulls may still live to prosper from late July to early December 2003 rally period that would likely see the NYA come roaring back to 461 or even a bit higher.
All told, it will likely be a year suited to nimble market timers, but not anything like the continuously trending affairs of 1999 (up), and 2000-2002 (down). Instead, we believe that this year will frustrate stalwart bears in the very short-term, scare inflexible bulls in the intermediate term, and yet still hurt overly zealous doom-and-gloomers by year-end. To make money, profits will need to be reaped and booked out when key cycle dates are reached and/or Fibonacci support and resistance zones are touched.
May the above road map perhaps help in that effort.
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