Sand Spring Advisors LLC
Tiffany Short for my Sweetheart
March 4, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
Today is my wife's birthday. We have been married for 19 years, and much as I would love to run out to Tiffany's and buy her some special trinket, I will not. Nor will a lot of ther husbands who don't even have a job anymore -- specifically those recently layed off from J.P. Morgan, CSFB, Merrill Lynch and the like.
Even in the increasingly mainstream and popular fund of funds business that I am involved in, it's not exactly easy times. Money is not flowing through Wall Street as it once did. Prudence in spending is called for.
So instead of a trinket, I've decided to short some shares of TIF for her birthday, and give her the proceeds if it works out. On a Fibonacci basis, is that a longer-term potential downside Tiffany price target of $12.96?
Overall, I am also getting tired of waiting for a market bounce that never comes. Even after the supposed good news of Iraq's Al-Samoud missile destruction and the capture of a senior Al-Queda strategist and assistant to Osama bin Laden, the market continues to act poorly. Technically, it appears to be making a shelf formation, and the potential rally we have been expecting into March 17-18th just hasn't materialized.
Will March 17-18th now be a low? Or might the market just "hang" until then, before beginning a period of acceleration to the downside in a waterfall decline? We are increasingly of the latter opinion as the market continues to build toward what we perceive will be a particularly nasty June-July cyclical low toward 390 on the NYA Index.
Whatever the case, Tiffany trading at 18x trailing earnings and 2x sales still looks too rich for my tastes -- and likely for many others. Call it our poster child stock for debt deflationary times.
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