Sand Spring Advisors LLC
March 4, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
Back on December 9, 2002 we espoused our two strongest currency views to be: long the Canadian dollar and long the Aussie dollar. Aussie has already reached and surpassed our anticipated .5897 target and USD/CAD is well on its way toward our ultimate target of 1.4390-1.4440.
If we were to display a short-term daily chart of the Canadian dollar, it has certainly become a bit oversold, but the above weekly chart still tells us that any temporary pops in the the U.S. dollar against its northern neighbor should be sold. Meanwhile, take-profit orders should slowly be placed in the 1.4390-1.4440 region where our Fibonacci bands on both a daily and weekly basis will fit the price action nicely.
In addition, while we believe crude oil has become very overbought, we also examined a weekly chart of Natural Gas today and could spy a strong long-term target for this latter commodity up toward 80. One company with a nice unhedged exposure to natural gas is Chesapeake Energy (CHK) -- a stock currently around $8.35 that we also can spy a Fibonacci upside target of $14.29 on. As a matter of disclosure, the Principal of Sand Spring Advisors recently went long CHK for his personal account.
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