Sand Spring Advisors LLC
CDW - Missing Low
April 14, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
Anyone who has read this website for awhile knows that in a variety of tech stocks ranging from KLA-Tencor, to Dell, to Novellus: We continue to see eventual new lows in the offing. Price targets respectively in these stocks that that would sport nice complete looking Fibonacci rhythms are $18.72 for KLAC, $12.50 for Dell, and $15.63 for NVLS.
One stock pictured above that we have not traditionally followed is CDW Computer Centers (Symbol: CDWC) -- one of the largest resellers of personal computers and related technology equipment in America. But CDW has long been a stock that High Tech Strategist analyst Fred Hickey follows closely, pointing out in a recent newsletter that CDW just reduced revenue guidance for Q1 even though it had already lowered estimates in its January report. Per Hickey:
"Despite [these] lower than expected revenues, CDW [also] forecast that it would hit its earnings target, just as it had done in Q4, when revenues also were short. One has to be suspicious of companies that can hit bottom line targets, even though the top line consistently disappoints. CDW's estimated earnings per share ramp begins in Q2 with a current estimate of 52 cents per share. The hurdle is even bigger in Q3. There's high risk that CDW will lower estimates again when it reports on April 15th."So it is that when we also take the above look at CDW's chart pattern, we see very much the same technical picture as we see when eyeing KLAC, DELL, or NVLS: a missing low. Perhaps the April 15th earnings release date will hold immediate bad tidings, or perhaps this company will somehow pull another "rabbit out of the hat" in the short-term, but the chart is clear. Over time, $17.74 beckons in CDW.
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