Sand Spring Advisors LLC
Once Again, per Dimitri
May 1, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
The above 5-minute S&P chart is once again from our young technical analyst friend Dimitri. We largely concur: It's been painful getting there, but the recent S&P upmove finally looks done both on a weekly, daily, hourly, and 5-minute basis.
The next big question will be this: Will the extreme market weakness that we now expect going into June and July truly be a Wave 3 of III downwave that our friends led by Bob Prechter over at Elliott Wave International expect, or simply a final 5th wave smash of some sort? Although there are several possible interpretations, to our eye, Sep. 2001 could perhaps have already represented a wave 1 of III of low, with the July 2002 low having been a 3 of III-wave low. Per this latter count, that might leave July 2003 as a wave 5 of III, to be followed by a big IV wave bounce in late 2003-early 2004, followed by an even more important late Dec 2004 5 of V low -- perhaps down near 600 on the S&P. Quite honestly, This is a count more to our liking than Prechter's. But in the short term, of course, it will not matter either way.
We currently anticipate looking for a significant trading low on or about our July 27-29 cycle window. Between now and then, current complacent investor psychology as espoused by pundits daily on business radio and television stations to "stay the course" needs to broken and replaced by more true fear and loathing. If the S&P has not touched at least 735-738 by late July, we will be disappointed in our own market prognostication abilities.
Is this a call for a surprise "crash" that seemingly hits out of nowhere? If a 20% downmove in todays' markets can be deemed a "crash," then the answer to that question is yes.
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