Sand Spring Advisors LLC
Sornette's Academic View & Heavenly Portents
May 31, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
Subscribers to Sandspring.com are already familiar with Professor Didier Sornette of UCLA who has started to apply many of the rules that exist in geo-physics to the fractal price behavior of markets.
Although Sornette's methodologies are very mathematical and may be difficult for the layman to understand, his conclusions are relatively clear cut. In an eerily similar manner to our own cyclical call for a major equity low closer to 600 on the S&P 500 come late December 2004, Sornette sees a high probability that recent equity strength will shortly roll over into a swan dive of some magnitude. Specifically, his super-exponential power-law log-periodic function implies an extrapolated price path shown at this SafeHaven.com link. Note that his best and final pattern match using all available data implies nothing short of a December 2004 equity market crash.
Bulls may have been winning in the short term, but as we approach our long espoused final area of Fibonacci fractal resistance near 972-974 on the S&P, June 1-3 may suddenly bring a change of tone.
Astrologically, Saturn enters Cancer on June 3 -- an alignment that will persist over the next two years and should be specifically restrictive on real estate. June 3rd also represents the same natal alignment in the heavens as was present with the founding of Islam in 622.
These are not good days for Mr. Bush to be visiting Geneva and Israel, and while we are no great fans of the Bush Administration's general proclivity to believe that America can impose its will on the rest of the world, we honestly fear for his safety.
Non-subscribers are invited to access our May 26th article, "Debt Bubble & Islamic Threats," together with other past articles, by signing up for a quarterly Sandspring.com subscription below.
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Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. The opinions expressed are not intended as specific investment advice, and simply represent our personal views offered here under our right of free speech. Sand Spring Advisors is a NFA registered CTA/CPO, but is not a Registered Investment Advisor. We do not directly trade any client funds. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and we will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.
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