Sand Spring Advisors LLC
Twist and Turn Finished
June 3, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
As some readers here may remember, back in early February, when we penned the piece "Gentle Early Spring & Rough Summer," we were expecting a surprise rally to 972-974 on the S&P 500 by March, followed by a June-July market slide.
The market instead traded low enough in late February and early March that such a target appeared "pie in the sky" to continue to consider. Many of our subscribers -- a naturally bearish group -- wrote into us saying that such a high "would break the symmetry of the chart pattern" and was "impossible to achieve."
We grudgingly came to agree over time that 972-974 was awfully far away, and we slowly started to think that while such a target was still possible, it was not absolutely necessary to achieve. We started to advise that while 972-974 might still linger in the future, the final rally phase of a congestion area that began in July 2002 could end anywhere, but certainly not above this level.
Alas, such a target was finally reached Monday, mildly surpassed intra-day, and then the market ended by experiencing a nasty "shooting star" reversal formation.
Bad news that IBM was being investigated by the SEC then followed, as should other negative news stories in the near future. In short, our patience over the past several months was less than stellar, and we will admit to having become frustrated in our own views and interpretations. But this twist and turning period should now be over. Down we go, with a first target of moving average support near the 38.2% retracement region...call it 895 or so. But this should just be the beginning of something much nastier into July 27-29th.
Non-subscribers are invited to access our May 26th article, "Debt Bubble & Islamic Threats," together with other past articles, by signing up for a quarterly Sandspring.com subscription below.
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