Sand Spring Advisors LLC
Long Wheat; Short Copper -- NatGas Too Hyped?
July 2, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
In the sophisticated hedge fund world these days, it seems almost everyone is singing the merits of Natural Gas and the inevitable supply shortage developing in that world. We don't disbelieve the fundamental story, but we've heard the bullish case just enough from so many different people (some clearly out of their element trading commodities) to irritate our contrarian vibes. A taxi driver the other day in New York City asked me what I thought of NatGas futures. This is a bad sign, and the current natural gas price chart (not pictured) doesn't really look that compelling to our eye.
Meanwhile, an excessive amount of rain in June got winter wheat off to a slow harvest season, and its price chart below looks far more compelling to us in terms of a potentially bullish Fibonacci rhythm. Does 4.55 beckon?
In our normal contrarian way, we'll go for long September Wheat, and just leave Natural Gas alone.
In addition, as housing slowly comes undone (Note recently announced weak U.S. construction spending in May -- As an aside, does anyone realize that California's budget problems make Argentina's fiscal problems seem trivial?), we continue to favor short copper -- perhaps on spread to long gold for those so inclined.
Non-subscribers are invited to access our June 29th article, "The Jig is Up: The Current Market & How Freddie Mac Likely Speculated," together with other past articles, by signing up for a quarterly Sandspring.com subscription below.
How Your Articles Are Delivered
Upon the processing of your credit card or the receipt of a personal check, Sand Spring will e-mail you the articles requested as a Word attachment, and also provide you with a WWW address and password to view the article on the web without using Word should you so desire. Confirmation of your order will be immediate, and the actual article will follow by e-mail typically within a few hours and in all cases before the opening of NYSE trading on the following day.
Ordering by Credit Card:
Our shopping cart is designed for both physical and subscription products, so do not be confused too much when it asks you for a shipping address. A correct address is important only for credit card authorization purposes. Your e-mail information is the most important piece of information to us for proper delivery of your article(s).
Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. The opinions expressed are not intended as specific investment advice, and simply represent our personal views offered here under our right of free speech. Sand Spring Advisors is a NFA registered CTA/CPO, but is not a Registered Investment Advisor. We do not directly trade any client funds. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and we will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.
If you order by credit card, your credit card will be billed as "Sand Spring Advisors LLC"
Take me back to the Sand Spring Home Page
Comments or Problems
Thank you for visiting Sand Spring Advisors LLC, Inc. We hope to hear from you again soon. For more information on Sand Spring Advisors actual programs, services, or to request a copy of a Disclosure Document, please phone us at 973 829 1962, FAX your request to 973 829 1962, or e-mail us at information@Sandspring.com
10 Jenks Road,
Morristown, NJ 07960
Phone: 973 829 1962
Facsimile: 973 829 1962
Best Experienced with
The material located on this website is also the copyrighted work of Sand Spring Advisors LLC. No party may copy, distribute or prepare derivative works based on this material in any manner without the expressed permission of Sand Spring Advisors LLC
This page and all contents are Copyright © 2002 by Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, Morristown, NJ