Sand Spring Advisors LLC
November 26, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
In his classic book, "Behavior of Prices on Wall Street," Arthur Merrill once showed on a historical basis that the day after Thanksgiving is often an up-day -- rising a a statistically robust 66% of the time, and sporting the strongest post-holiday single-day directional bias of the year.
But in 2003, and Art Merrill notwithstanding, our best chart analysis continues to suggest sudden equity weakness developing. Although our previously espoused pattern match of November 16th, did not forecast the degree of this Monday's rally, we continue to see a potential hourly rhythm on the S&P that should lead toward a revised downside target of 1002. Reaching such a target by the next PEI cycle date of December 5th remains a possibility -- despite this date only being some 6 trading days away.
While we send our best holiday wishes to our readers, we still must proactively warn of some sort of Turkey-time trouble.
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