Sand Spring Advisors LLC
December 20, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
At about this time each month we usually pen our subscriber-only missive. But soon to be entering our fifth calendar year of web-based commentary, 2003 has not been a year of prognostications of which we are most proud.
Although we did preciently warn of a soon-to-deflate fixed income bubble in late May 2003, and we did make a few savvy calls on the U.S dollar against the yen and euro that ended up working well, every time that we offered an opinion on U.S equity markets, we were either ahead of the game (bullish too early in February) or simply wrong (bearish too early in June).
On top of everything else, we espoused bearishness on Copper early in 2004 -- a view that has proved nothing short of embarrassing given that market's 2003 vault higher.
Therefore, rather than test our luck (or lack thereof) this December, and even with the S&P now at our next espoused 1089 resistance level, we wish to beat a hasty retreat for the year, and simply sit down and shut up. We have long believed in only posting commentary when technical patterns are significantly compelling to merit comment. At present, chart patterns in a variety of markets appear to be setting up for a potential shift from reflationary euphoria to debt-deflationary fear. But is the entire picture complete and compelling? Perhaps within the next few weeks, everything will become more clear. Or perhaps we will now need to wait until the next April 14-15, 2004 PEI cycle window. Hopefully, by being somewhat contrite at present, our equity muse will soon return in the New Year.
Please note that all subscribers will received at least two extra months of subscriber-only access due to our current lull in service.
We wish each and every Sandspring.com reader a very Merry Christmas and holiday season.
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