Sand Spring Advisors LLC
1070 Support in Potential "Hang Year?"
March 12, 2004
by, Barclay T. Leib
As the chart below shows, we believe longer term that a price below 600 on the S&P 500 beckons. We also believe that the market hit and rejected significant resistance up at 1155-1160 recently.
We are thus short, but also want to be careful. There is a large cluster of Fibonacci and moving average support in the 1061-1078 region. 1070 is a specific level where we will be covering some shorts on a tactical trading basis.
The possibility still exists that 2004 could end up being something of a "hang year" where despite a plethora of brewing economic and geo-political problems, equity markets basically avoid a true "Acapulco Cliff Dive" far longer than one might ever expect.
A close examination of the yellow-highlighted section of Didier Sornette's updated "pattern-match" chart below between the current S&P & past Nikkei topping formation might be indicative of such.
A mid-April market low toward 1070 will increase the possibility of a "hang year" -- albeit the market would be setting itself up for a true 2005-2006 smash. Because of this longer term risk, we will not try playing this market from the long-side regardless of what our mid-April cycle date brings.
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