The market of 2006 has recently been showing many divergences. To name a few: the price performance of the DJIA and the Nasdaq (new recent DJIA highs while Nasdaq lingers well off its highs); a declining percentage of Dow stocks above their 30-day moving average (poor internal breadth); and a downward sloping Advance-Decline Line on the Nasdaq (weak for sometime).
Does the market have any memory that we saw similar divergences in 1987 -- just before the crash? Apparently not.
But one macro trader (who does have his memory cap on) just sent us the "pattern match" chart below between the current S&P and the equity market of 1987 -- not a perfect fit to be sure -- but the potential February 24th turn date discussed yesterday should not be trifled with.
For a more complete understanding of our pi and Fibonacci analysis of markets, please read our latest subscriber-only article Mid-Winter Thoughts. Non-subscribers may gain instant access to this article by signing up for a quarterly or annual subscription to Sandspring.com below.
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Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. The opinions expressed are not intended as specific investment advice, and simply represent our personal views offered here under our right of free speech. Sand Spring Advisors is a NFA registered CTA/CPO, but is not a Registered Investment Advisor. We do not directly trade any client funds. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and we will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.
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Earlier Articles Included in Subscription for FREE:
2006 Overview...January 2005... A cycle overview for what we expect over the coming year. Available for FREE with purchase above.
The Pernicious Drift...December 2005... Among other tiopics, what will Ben Bernanke bring to the Fed, and how will he be pereived by the public over time? Available for FREE with purchase above.
Musings on the Way to January...October 2005... A cyclical update to earlier espoused thematic views Available for FREE with purchase above.
Slow Motion Melt...September 2005... A cyclical and technical map for the fall of 2005, inclusive of one equity long-short spread situation that appears most compelling in our view Available for FREE with purchase above.
Hot Topics of the Day -- Housing and Energy -- Our Current Views...August 2005... An updated look at some important fundamental macro and technical indicators related to the Oil and Housing markets. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Behavioral Finance in Motion -- Creeping Malaise...July 2005... July brought London ist ings and currency revaluations, but little in the way of a definitive turn lower in U.S equities. In this article we listen to the market, and prepare for a more dangerous fall. Available for FREE with purchase above.
June Cycle Update...June 2005... The previously anticipated late April/early May 2005 equity low in place, this article updates our cycle thoughts for the latter half of 2005. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Back to Water...May 2005... Our first go-round looking at water stocks in fall 2004 was quite successful. This article examines the chart patterns of further water industry names that we like. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Time for a Rabbit Out of the Hat...April 2005... With the 4.3-month PEI cycle date of May 11th forthcoming, is it time for an equity bounce period into the summer? Available for FREE with purchase above.
The Push-Pull of 2005 -- Horror-filled, At Least from Hollywood ...March 2005... A socionomic look at what Hollywood has in mind for us in 2005 and the potential correlation of such to financial markets. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Lost in Space -- Varied 2005 Macro Views & More Definitive Astro Path...February 2005... Divergent 2005 macro opinions abound within the hedge fund world. Can the Astro market analysts predict 2005 with more precision? Available for FREE with purchase above.
Academia Slowly Catching Up to Fractal Reality -- Dec. 30-31, 2004 Cycle Date Hits; 2005-2007 Forecast...January 2005... When equity prices reversed almost on a dime at year-end 2004, what does this portend for 2005-2007? Available for FREE with purchase above.
The PEI Cycle & Consumer Confidence ...November 2004... Was Princeton Economic Institute founder Martin Armstrong a pot or a genius in his discovery of pi cycles in market behavior? Available for FREE with purchase above.
Dark Cloud Cover & Places to Hide ...Oct 2004... This article discusses the increasingly difficult world even of alternative investing into hedge funds, and other places to look for safety and growth such as within the water industry. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Harmonic Reverberations between 1968-1972 and Present Times ...Sep 2004... This article discusses all of the various social and economic similaries between the 1968-1972 period and current times. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Key Levels...July 2004... This article discusses levels that need to be broken in S&P 500 and NYA Indices to confirm an immediate acceleration lower in equity prices. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Active Applause & Early Signs of Bush and Real Estate Market Demise...June 2004... This article discusses apects of the public reaction to "Fahrenheit 9/11," and the increasing bifurcation of America that it reveals, together with a discussion of the underestimated importance of the real estate market to the business cycle. Available for FREE with purchase above.
The CDS Market Explored & Current Market Nastiness...May 2004... This article discusses some of the dangers of the growing Credit Default Swap market. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Janus Revisited and Current Cycle Thoughts...April, 2004... This article reexamines the migration of Janus Fund top 10 holdings (first discussed with a highly critical eye in early 2001), and in 15 pages of charts and text, lays out a refined cyclical roadmap for equity markets for the balance of 2004. Available for FREE with purchase above.
The Importance of December 30-31, 2004 -- Monetary Inflation vs. Economic Deflation; Bush and China: The Two Keys...February, 2004... This article discusses an important pi cycle date forthcoming at the end of this year within the current macro economic context. Different potential paths for the U.S. stock market are examined. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Imbalances That Persist & Equity Index Fibonacci Rhythms in Foreign Terms...January, 2004... This article discusses the global macro trade situation, and the U.S. illusion of prosperity caused by currency movements. Available for FREE with purchase above.
What Growth? & The Latest Thoughts from the Warren Buffett of the Dark Side...November, 2003... This article discusses how various economic statics within the U.S currently suffer from various ic adjustments, and the short-selling perspectives from one hedge fund master. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Depressed in the Short and Long-Term, But Equity Hubris Ending Soon...October 2003... This article discusses all the silliness that currently abounds in the equity markets, and while frustrating in the short-term to straight thinking people, is likely to end soon. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Tops 11-Weeks Apart & Regime Shifts or Lack Thereof...September 2003... This article discusses why we see an equity topping formation to be imminent, and why thoughts by some at the current time of a normal cyclical recovery are likely to be quite misplaced. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Debt Bubble Unwind & a Market of Stocks vs. a Stock Market...
August 2003... This article discusses the traumatic events of the fixed income market in July 2003 and the beginning of a debt bubble unwind that is likely to last several years. An update on many of Sand Spring's other views in foreign exchange, equity indices, and individual equites is also provided over a total of 15-pages of text and charts. Available for FREE with purchase above.
The Jig is Up --The Current Market & How Freddie Mac Likely Speculated...July 2003... This article moves from a discussion of the current technical position of the U.S. equity market, to an updated and detailed discussion about accounting issues at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Available for FREE with purchase above.
Debt Bubble & Inslamic Threats...May 2003... This article moves from a discussion of the technical position of T-Notes and euro-yen as of late May 2003, to a discussion of possible unforseen implications of the Bush Tax package, to a look at the technical pattern of certain stocks such as Fannie Mae and MBIA. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Ugliness Coming...April 2003... This article moves from a discussion on SARS, to the Iraqi peace, to an update on pension fund accounting problems, to other fundamental issues of much ongoing importance. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Dealing with Irrationality & The New Age of Acquarius: Malkiel Out; Sornette In...March 2003... This article steps through our March 19th cycle date that marked the commencement of the Iraqi War. It also lauds UCLA professor Didier Sornette's latest work on the rhythm of market behavior. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Gentle Early Spring, But Rough Summer...February 2003... This article lays out various cyclical concerns we have for June and July 2003, as well as other thoughts on Asian markets. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Various 2002 Perspectives & Ongoing 2003 Concerns...December 2002... This article spends some time discussing somewhat disappointing hedge fund returns in 2002, and some of the reasons behind these muted returns. It also highlights our overall cyclical roadmap for the broader market indices in 2003 and certain chart patterns that we deem particularly attractive potential longs and short-selling candidates at the current time.
Available for FREE with purchase above.
Iceberg Risk: The Rumbling Earth & Mortgage Market Malaise...November 2002... This article spends much time discussing Fannie Mae and the growing volatility of U.S. fixed income markets. Also highlighted are certain chart patterns that we deem particularly strong short-selling candidates. Available for FREE with purchase above.
72, 12, 7 - The Ancient Language of Mathematics, Upcoming Pi-Related Cyclical Rhythms...October 2002... This is an updated overview of how we see 2003-2004 developing, and offers specific date clusters related to pi rhythms that should be of particular importance to the financial markets. For those interested in the history of pi mathematics through ancient times, much historical context is also offered. Available for FREE with purchase above.
The New Era of Government, Debt Default & Weakening Consumerism...August 2002... This article offers a long-term look at interest rate trends and its anticipated interplay with the now sagging U.S. consumer and retail sector. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Biotech Bottom?...July 2002... Within this article we anticipated a tradeable rally developing in the Biotech sector between July and November 2002. Several security-specific chart patterns are examined. A second update to this piece, published in mid-July, further elaborated on the broader market indices. We eventually got our bounce in these broader indices post July 23rd, but the Biotechs were quite honestly a disappointment. Available for FREE with purchase above.
A Coincidence of Time...June 2002... Within this article we consider a variety of cycle timing techniques that upon occasion form important date clusters. Available for FREE with purchase above.
In Search of Survivable Themes...May 2002... Within this article we consider survivable investment themes in today's markets, and two small-cap stocks from down under that may fit this bill.
Available for FREE with purchase above.
Pension Asset & Liability Blues...March 2002... Within this article we explore much misunderstood and underestimated ERISA and FAS accounting that could cause a two-decade long malaise in corporate profitability. We also update many of our previously espoused long and short views.
Available for FREE with purchase above.
Complicated Moves...February 2002... A temporarily bullish look at the DJIA, written in late February 2002, together with a discussion of several value stocks that we like within this market.
Available for FREE with purchase above.
Zig-Zag Markets, and What Will Go Thud that Hasn't Already...January 2002... In this article, we discuss the path we expect into our important November 2002 cycle date, and several specific short selling opportunities in industries as far afield as trucks to bread... Available for FREE with purchase above.
2002: A Golden Year? ...December 2001... In this article, we explore the cyclical rhythm of the gold and gold equity market, and what it portends for next year. Several stock-specific charts and fundamentals are examined... Available for FREE with purchase above.
Kasriel to Greenspan: Farewell Soon? ...November 2001... In this article, across 17 chart-filled pages, Northern Trust chief economist Paul Kasriel scathingly exposes many of the flaws of Alan Greenspan's Fed, and how Greenspan may actually have set the economy up for the 2000 Tech-Wreck... Available for FREE with purchase above.
The Cycle of War & The Agony of Debt...October 2001... In this article, across 12 chart-filled pages, we explore how relative geo-political calm can suddenly digress to a temper-filled period of war, as well as current fundamental pressures on the U.S. economy from excessive corporate and household debt burdens... Available for FREE with purchase above.
Perspectives on Where We Are, and Why ISDA Documentation Will Not Prevent Derivatives s, September 2001... An update on prior views and prognostications, as well as a discussion of a new market sector now potentially coming to life on the long side. We also examine how easy it might be for a major bank such as JP Morgan to someday suffer a serious derivatives Available for FREE with purchase above.
Long_Term Equity, Gold, and K-Wave Cycle Thoughts, August 2001... A long-term look at our own cycle theories and how they may potentially interact with the famous Kondratieff cycle Available for FREE with purchase above.
The Importance of June 2nd, May, 2001... A cyclical look at the 8.6 month cycle at work in the current equity market, and one financial stock with a looking "pattern match" to a historical chart pattern Available for FREE with purchase above.
Expert Short Picks, May, 2001... A discussion of the fundamental thoughts of short selling hedge fund manager James Chanos within a technical framework Available for FREE with purchase above.
Four Themes for 2001 & Beyond, April, 2001... A variety of issues we see growing in importance over the year 2001, with a particular emphasis on certain issues within the U.S. food chain. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Portfolio from Hell, January 20, 2001... a close critique of a major mutual fund manager and a technical look at the individual equity components of their go-go portfolio. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Positive for Now, January 4, 2001... If the DJIA were to vault to new highs, where would the imbedded Fibonacci rhythm of its price action lead? Available for FREE with purchase above.
Time to Start Accumulating the Golds? - Dec. 2000... We take a close look at four gold-related stocks that we favor. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Don't Look for a Bottom Until..., Nov. 2000... An update of some Fibonacci thoughts on eight selected stocks. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Diamonds in the Sky, Oct. 2000... A close technical look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the implications of the formation it has made. Available for FREE with purchase above.
The Signficance of Oct 27- Nov 1, Oct. 2000... This analysis did not pan out quite as we expected, but is a good example of how we examine the world in Fibonacci terms. Available for FREE with purchase above.
M&A Currency Imbalances, Oct. 2000... An interview with a well known fund manager and economic thinker, we explore some of the macro-imabalnces as they exist in the world today. Available for FREE with purchase above.
Failed Accounting Standards, Mmm Mmm Good, and Where (if at all) to Invest in Bandwidth, July 2000... A three-part article outlining some of the balance sheet fun and games of today's financial world, one old-world stock, as well as our vision of the potential fallout and opportunities in the bandwidth market Available for FREE with purchase above.
Cyclical Commodity Turns, May 2000... As we entered the summer-time harvest season, this was a cyclical look at the world of wheat, corn, gold, and the CRB. Much of the analysis proved premature, but it still leaves us with some long-term cyclical dates to now keep in mind. Available for FREE with purchase above.
E-Commerce: A Paired Approach, April 2000... This is a more fundamentally oriented article examing the likely winners and losers as e-commerce increasingly invades the transactional side of Wall Street. Available for FREE with purchase above.
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