Sand Spring Advisors LLC

Pi Date Upon Us

Jan 6, 2010

by, Barclay T. Leib

As we sit atop the minor Jan 6, 2010 pi date, it is certainly possible that we may be at or within a stone's throw of a tradeable equity top.

But I always remember Marty Armstrong telling me to really look around on these dates at what is "the most stretched market unsupported by the fundamentals," and to be attentive to a possible entropic reversal there.

Copper's recent advance would seem a logical candidate in this regard. Copper warehouse inventories are through the moon in recent months, and only recent strike threats in South America may have created a short-term price squeeze higher.

There is a small chance that Jan 6, 2010 could also represent a date where U.S. Treasuries "accelerate" to the downside -- falling off the edge so to speak. This might see temporary short-term ongoing strength in equities, but then a subsequent reversal lower in equities when Treasuries start declining too far too fast.

So in order of preference, we are personally moving towards the following positioning:

1) short copper - half one's exposure
2) short equities - quarter of one's exposure
3) short bonds - quarter of one's exposure

One of the three positions may not work (mostly likely the bond trade), but the bond trade also serves a useful purpose to help hedge the other two exposures in case equities were to unexpectedly to take off. It is of course possible that all three trades work as higher U.S. rates start to undermine equity and copper market strength.

Stay tuned for more updates. As one note, updates always go to subscribers first by e-mail.


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