Readers of this website know our emphasis on increments of the number pi to mark potentially dramatic market turns.

What they may not know is another of our beliefs as follows: To have a real market crash, three elements of global tension should generally be present: the first tension must be financial in orientation; a second typical tension is (oddly enough) geo-physical in orientation; and a third tension tends to be geo-political in orientation.

Look back at the Crash of 1987.

It occured on a Monday after a weekend of dollar policy discussions between then-Treasury Secretary James Baker and the German Bundesbank. These failed discussions resulted in Sunday newspaper headlines to the effect: "Baker Tells Germany: Let the Dollar Fall." Check: financial tensions existed.

In terms of geo-physical tension, the weekend of October 17-18th, 1987 (extending into Monday, October 19th, 1987) also saw the arrival of a freak massive hurricane in England. This storm kept the large majority of London's financial district's workers at home that Monday. Check: geo-physical tension.

Early in the morning of October 19, 1987, President Ronald Reagan called in reprisal attacks against Iranian oil platforms in a tit-for-tat response to a prior Iranian attack on the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti tanker Sea Isle City. Check, geo-political tension.

We all know what happened to global equity markets on Monday, October 19, 1987.

Now flash forward to April 19, 2010.

Financial tension: Goldman Sachs is accused of fraud by the SEC in the sub-prime meltdown; Greece is on the ropes within the EMU; and China is under increasing pressure to revalue their remnimbi. Check, financial tension.

Geo-physical tension: Europe is grounded by Icelandic volcanic ash plumes. Some may say that this is a passing irritation, but these folks should be aware that after Iceland's Laki volcano (right next to the volcano currently misbehaving) erupted in 1783, it did so for an extended period of time. In this earlier period, and because the volcanic ash in the air reduced sunlight, crop production subsequently fell in western Europe, which helped fuel famine -- which in turn, helped produce a geo-political environment ripe for the French Revolution. Check, geo-physical tension.

Now last but not least, we await some sort of geo-political tension. What scares us is that Monday, April 19th is exactly 3141 (pi *1000) days from the horrific events of September 11, 2001.

What is worse, as pointed out by some historians/analysts, including market commentator Eric Hadik of www.insiidetrack.com, is that the period between April 16-25 -- centered on April 19/20 (April 20th also being Hitler's birthday) -- has in the past tended to yield particularly nasty and war-prone events. The April 16-25th window in history has specifically marked:

• April 19, 1775: Start of Revolutionary War with Battle of Lexington and Concord
• April 21, 1876: Battle of San Jacinto/end of Texas Revolution
• April 19, 1861: Start of the Civil War as Lincoln orders blockade of Confederate ports, on the same day as Baltimore Riots results in 4 soldiers and 9 civilians killed
• April 25, 1845: Start of the Mexican-American War
• April 25, 1898: Start of the Spanish-American War
• April 19, 1904: Much of Toronto destroyed by fire.
• April 19, 1928: Japan invades Shantung in Northern China
• April 19, 1933: FDR abandonned the Gold Standard
• April 19, 1936: The Great Arab Revolt in Palestine
• April 19, 1941: Luftwaffe raids London killing 2300
• April 19, 1943: The Warsaw Ghetto Uprising
• April 16, 1947: French ship explodes in Texas City harbor, killing 522
• April 19, 1961: Failure of the Pay of Pigs Invasion
• April 20, 1975: President Thieu of Vietnam pressured to resign in final throws of Vietnam War
• April 18, 1983: US embassy bombing in Lebanon kills 63 people
• April 20, 1985: ATF raid on The Convent, The Sword, and the Arm of the Lord compound in northern Arkansas
• April 18-19, 1988: US-Iran warship battle "Operation Praying Mantis" transpires in Gulf -- largest such naval battle since WWII
• April 19, 1989: Explosion on USS Iowa, killing 47 sailors
• April 19, 1993: Waco/Branch Davidian debacle where 76 people die
• April 19, 1995: Oklahoma City Bombing that kills 168
• April 20, 1999: Columbine High School massacre
• April 16, 2007: Virginia Tech Massacre kills 32 people and injures 23 others.

Particularly given its pi relationship to 9-11-01, Monday April 19th, 2010 could be a nasty day in history -- and one where we will personally be avoiding the New York City subways for fear of any Al Qaeda surprise attack.

For more on our current thoughts on the markets, readers may access our in-depth April 2nd subscriber-only article entitled "A Bear's Period of Purgatory" and its April 12th addendum which looks at other pi relationships by clicking here.

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